Keywords
Epidemiology
Mortality
Time-series studies
Health information systems
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Abstract
Objective: To analyze the stroke mortality trend in residents of the municipality of Paulo Afonso, Bahia, Brazil, from 2014 to 2023, overall and stratified by sex and age group. Methods: This is a quantitative, ecological time-series study. Stroke mortality data (ICD-10: I60-I69) were obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM/DATASUS) and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated for the general population and for selected sex and age subgroups. The trend analysis was performed using the Generalized Least Squares (GLSAR) regression model to calculate the Annual Percent Change (APC). Results: Over the period, the general mortality trend was stable (APC: -1.76%; p=0.5080), as well as for males (APC: 0.09%; p=0.9689) and females (APC: -3.57%; p=0.2168). However, statistically significant trends were observed in specific age groups: an increase in the 50-59 age group (APC: 12.05%; p=0.0013) and decreases in the 70-79 (APC: -15.06%; p=0.0061) and 80 and over (APC: -12.45%; p=0.0310) age groups. Conclusion: Although overall stroke mortality remained stable, the divergent trends among age groups suggest changes in the epidemiological profile of the disease in the municipality, indicating the need for targeted public health strategies.
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