Space-temporal distribution of leprosy cases in under 15 years

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of leprosy cases in children under 15 years of age in the capital of Maranhão. Methods: Ecological study with space-time analysis, using variables aggregated by Health Districts, in <15 years reported as new cases in the period 2014-2017, with a sample of 201 cases. Collection of data from medical records, book-records and notification forms. The spatial analysis was constructed by clusters using the local empirical Bayesian estimator. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee. Results: 1 high risk cluster (RR=3.37) was detected in 10% of the population at risk, with a total of 52 cases in <15 years. For clusters, the risk ranged from 0.21 to 3.37. In the evaluation of the gross rate, the following hyperendemic sectors were detected: Centro and Cohab (2014); Centro, Cohab and Itaqui Bacanga (2015); Centro (2016) and Centro and Itaqui Bacanga (2017) with rates >8.00/100,000 inhabitants. Analyzing the distribution of smoothed rates by the global empirical Bayesian estimator, Cohab (2014); Itaqui Bacanga, Centro and Cohab (2015); Center (2016 and 2017) were hyperendemic. Conclusion: The Districts presented hyperendemic numbers, demonstrating the transmission potential in the municipality. The results may contribute to identify groups at risk and to design health policies aimed at leprosy.